The quantitative impact of armed conflict on education in Nigeria: counting the human and financial costs

Amir Jones; Ruth Naylor

Abstract:

This case study investigates the extent to which conflict has impacted on education in Nigeria. Using a variety of data sources, it considers the evidence of the impact of conflict on education via the various channels listed above, and attempts to quantify the impact in terms of numbers of out-of-school children (OOSC) and the financial implications of the damage done to the education system. It should be noted that the conflict situation in Nigeria is highly dynamic and that any statistic relating to the number of OOSC can only give a snapshot at one particular point in time. Similarly the financial costs of the impact depend on the timing and length of the period of conflict being considered. A further challenge in Nigeria is that data quality is often limited and there are considerable gaps between data collection points. For these reasons the figures given in this case study are very rough estimates, exploring the approximate range in which the ‘actual’ number, often a highly transitory statistic, might lie. The report firstly sets the context by outlining the conflict history. Section 3 explores the effect of conflict on numbers of OOSC. The fourth section explores the direct costs to the education sector, broader impacts to the sector and costs borne in the longer term as a result of schooling missed due to conflict. The conclusion considers the relative scale of the different channels of impact, both in terms of cost and enrolment.